[Note that the question and the answer below are recreated from a HYSPLIT FAQ site that predates this forum site. The original posting date is unknown.]
Question:
Is it true that the VAAC’s do not issue volcanic ash dispersion model forecasts (sometimes called “VAFTADs” using the name of an earlier model), but use them as guidance, like the PUFF and AVHRR? If I wanted to see your forecast, then would need to look up your bulletin and the attached VAAC chart along with the SIGMETS bulletin, or do you send the VAFTAD out as a graphic?
Answer:
Yes, dispersion model output is guidance. For information on obtaining the model output, see From https://www.ready.noaa.gov/ready-bin/ashcurrent.pl
Though there is not an international requirement to issue the model output, NOAA issues it with WMO headers PHBE10 KWBC and PHBI10 KWBC.
SIGMETs contain the official forecast; these are issued by Meteorological Watch Offices such as the Aviation Weather Center. ( http://aviationweather.gov/) and the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (http://aawu.arh.noaa.gov/). Other official volcanic ash products are Volcanic Ash Advisories (text messages) and Volcanic Ash Graphics, issued from Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (e.g. Washington (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/VAAC/messages.html) and Anchorage (http://vaac.arh.noaa.gov/)).”
AVHRR satellite imagery is not a forecast, but an analysis.
Barbara Stunder
Is it true that the VAAC’s do not issue volcanic ash dispersion model forecasts (sometimes called “VAFTADs” using the
Post questions, comments and links to research (research papers, web sites, etc) involving HYSPLIT and volcanic ash. This section is also to facilitate collaborations between researchers involved in volcanic ash transport and dispersion.
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